Chill Out: The Cold Brew Forecast

You. Yes, you with the party budget. If you thought cold brew coffee was on the rise, think again. Our data, drawn from 6,037 keywords over the last four years, reveals that interest in cold brew is cooling off. We predict a significant drop, with searches projected to fall to approximately 83066 by 2028, down from a peak of 98980 in 2023.

The trend shows a year-on-year decline of 17%, which is quite stark considering the rapid growth of other coffee-related trends, such as espresso and cappuccino, which have exhibited significant increases. This stark difference underscores that while cold brew has had its moment, it seems to be tapering off as a standout category in the South African coffee market.

What jumps out is the geographical disparity—Western Cape leads the charge with a staggering 53% of the interest, dwarfing Gauteng and KZN, which each sit at 25.9% and 22.7% respectively in per capita searches. For the local retailers, this indicates that a considerable portion of their cold brew-related inventory should be aimed at the more latte-loving Western Cape clientele.

We read this as a cautionary tale for those investing heavily in cold brew products. As the market cools, brands need to pivot their strategies. The data suggests that cold brew might soon be a niche rather than a mainstream player. Look out for shifts in customer preferences — innovation in coffee products will be essential.

Data from PartyTrends chart
RegionValueYoYVerdict
202298,327—Chasing
202398,980—Chasing
202494,040—Chasing
202579,430—Chasing
202695,392—Chasing
Headline from the data

Cold Brew peaked at ~98,980 annual searches in 2023 (+1% vs 2022). 2028 is tracking ~83,066 (projected full year).

Market Lowdown: Cold Brew's Place in the Coffee Landscape

The decline in cold brew popularity has significant implications for the South African market. As a category, cold brew has maintained a steady consumer base, but it appears consumers are pivoting towards other beverage options. With the competition heating up from espresso and cappuccino, which saw increases of 38.6% and 25.5% year-on-year respectively, it's clear that the landscape is shifting.

There’s also a geographical split to consider. The Western Cape continues to be the epicenter of coffee culture with a per capita rate of 41.7 searches per 1,000 people, versus 21.0 for Gauteng and 18.4 for KZN. This suggests that retailers in the Western Cape, such as Tamboerskloof Coffee or Bean There Coffee Company, should stock cold brew options, as their customers are more likely to engage with this trend.

The seasonal dynamics also play a role in this trend. With South Africa's notoriously hot summers, one would expect a surge in cold beverage searches, but the data indicates a waning interest in cold brew specifically. Strategies over the holiday season must adapt to this cooling trend. Brands should consider diversifying into iced lattes or other refreshing coffee variations, while keeping an eye on the emerg trends in the coffee space.

98327
2022
leader
98980
2023
challenger
Yearly share
2022
21.1%
2023
21.2%
2024
20.2%
2025
17%
2026
20.5%
Key takeaways
  • Winner: See chart
  • Checkers, Pick n Pay, Woolworths — lead retail channels
  • Source: PartyTrends Google Keyword Planner, Jun 2022–May 2026

Decoding the Consumer: What South Africans Want

The South African consumer is evolving rapidly, particularly regarding beverage choices. Search trends indicate significant generational shifts, with younger demographics leaning heavily towards espresso and chai lattes, which saw substantial growth of 98% and 23.9% year-on-year, respectively. This is a telltale sign that the demand for artisanal coffee drinks is on the rise, while traditional options like cold brew are falling out of favor.

Moreover, the rise of delivery services such as Mr D and Uber Eats has transformed how consumers engage with cold brew. No longer is it simply an option on a café menu; it's now available at the click of a button. Yet, the data suggests that cold brew hasn’t capitalized on this trend as effectively as other beverages. Could this be a missed opportunity for brands to innovate and market cold brew more effectively through delivery platforms?

In suburbs like Melville or Parkhurst, where artisanal coffee culture thrives, cold brew might find pockets of loyal consumers. However, in townships, traditional coffee drinks take precedence and cold brew remains a novelty. The search data highlights the need for brands to tailor their approach according to these local dynamics to engage varying consumer bases.

2028 projection
~83,066
Cold Brew: where it's heading by 2028
PartyTrends linear fit on seasonally adjusted annual totals

What retailers should do

For retailers like Pick n Pay, Checkers, and Woolworths, the data presents a clear picture of where to focus inventory. Given the projected decline in cold brew searches, stocking niche cold brew brands should be approached with caution. Brands such as Caffé Milano and The Coffee Collective can still attract a loyal customer base, but retailers should also consider promoting trending products such as espresso and cappuccino.

Woolworths, for instance, should leverage its high-end reputation to market cold brew in stylish packag and as part of a premium coffee selection. Simultaneously, they must also consider stocking seasonal alternatives to cold brew, like iced cappuccinos or cold lattes, to cater to shifting consumer preferences.

Checkers can capitalize by creating promotional bundles of cold brew coffee and complementary snacks, while Pick n Pay might explore collaborations with local artisans to create unique cold brew blends that can entice customers. The aim should be to diversify offerings while still catering to existing cold brew enthusiasts in the Western Cape.

Retail action — stock this
Pick n PayCheckersShopriteWoolworths
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