Trend Forecasting

By Marco Ferreira · Provincial Rivalries Columnist

: where it's heading by 2028 South Africa 138954

Gin Bar peaked at ~138,954 annual searches in 2028 (+13% vs 2027). 2028 is tracking ~138,954 (projected full year).

Estimated yearly searches for “gin bar” with a fitted trend line pushed two years into the future. 2022 & 2026 are projected to full years; the striped 2027–2028 bars and dashed line are our forecast, not measured data.

-13% YoY (2025)

138,954 (2028) Peak year

138,954 (2028) Latest year

51,724 (2022) Low year

Gin Bar: -13% YoY (2025 vs 2024).

Peak year 2028: 138,954 annual searches.

2028 tracking 138,954 (see chart).

How PartyTrends measured this

Google Keyword Planner data, Jun 2022 – May 2026
Estimated yearly searches for “gin bar” with a fitted trend line pushed two years into the future. 2022 & 2026 are projected to full years; the striped 2027–202
PartyTrends — 6,037 keywords tracked nationally

What PartyTrends reads in this data

PartyTrends read: is rising — +48% year-on-year. If the trend holds it keeps climbing to ~138,954 searches a year by 2028.

We track 138954 Google Keyword Planner keywords nationally (Jun 2022–May 2026), normalised per 1,000 people so Gauteng's population cannot buy the win. On : where it's heading by 2028, the leader is where search intent concentrates — that is not noise, it is where South Africans are actively planning spend.

The gap between provinces is the story: coastal sundowner culture vs inland bulk retail vs KZN's own rhythm. Our team reads this as a structural preference, not a one-month blip.

Data from PartyTrends chart
Region	Value	YoY	Verdict
2022	51,724	—	Chasing
2023	55,830	—	Chasing
2024	82,580	—	Chasing
2025	71,540	—	Chasing
2026	121,714	—	Chasing

Headline from the data

Gin Bar peaked at ~138,954 annual searches in 2028 (+13% vs 2027). 2028 is tracking ~138,954 (projected full year).

What this means for the SA market

For the SA market, : where it's heading by 2028 splits cleanly by province. Gauteng buyers search differently to Western Cape — Sandton office parties vs Constantia home entertaining. December still spikes 40–60% on most party keywords; load-shedding pushes more home-hosting search.

Brands winning here (, , , ) are not accidental — they match the search language we see in the raw data. Laggards are still fighting last season's format.

For the SA market, Gin Bar: where it's heading by 2028 splits cleanly by province. Gauteng buyers search differently to Western Cape — Sandton office parties vs Constantia home entertaining. December still spikes 40–60% on most party keywords; load-shedding pushes more home-hosting search.

Brands winning here (Inverroche, Six Dogs Gin, Musgrave Gin, Bespoke Gin) are not accidental — they match the search language we see in the raw data. Laggards are still fighting last season's format.

What the SA consumer is telling us

Search behaviour is confession. When South Africans type these keywords, they are planning a real purchase or night out — not browsing idly. Mr D and Uber Eats extend the same trend into delivery; township taerns and suburban Checkers runs show up as different keyword clusters.

Gen Z skews experience-led venues; older cohorts skew retail bulk. Both show up in our provincial split — which is why the leader leads per capita even when Gauteng wins on raw volume.

Picture a Friday in Sandton: search spikes on Gin Bar: where it's heading by 2028 aren't abstract — they're someone planning this week's spend. PartyTrends reads the leader as the intent leader.

What retailers should do

Retail playbook: At Pick n Pay, Checkers, Shoprite, Woolworths, category managers should front-face related SKUs where : where it's heading by 2028 search is rising. PartyTrends data says stock , , , ahead of generic imports — local relevance wins clicks and basket size.

Promo windows: week before payday, Heritage Day long weekend, December 15–January 5. End-cap + Tops at Spar craft shelf for WC; GP needs bulk multipack + Sandton premium line.

Retail playbook: At Pick n Pay, Checkers, Shoprite, Woolworths, category managers should front-face related SKUs where Gin Bar: where it's heading by 2028 search is rising. PartyTrends data says stock Inverroche, Six Dogs Gin, Musgrave Gin, Bespoke Gin ahead of generic imports — local relevance wins clicks and basket size.

Promo windows: week before payday, Heritage Day long weekend, December 15–January 5. End-cap + Tops at Spar craft shelf for WC; GP needs bulk multipack + Sandton premium line.

Retail action — stock this

Checkers Hyper liquor aisleWoolworths gin rangeTops at Spar craft shelfNorman Goodfellows fynbos gin selection

InverrocheSix Dogs GinMusgrave GinBespoke Gin

Who wins on Gin Bar: where it's heading by 2028?

Share your take in the comments — this is the argument starter.

Supporting information & indicators

What we found beyond PartyTrends search data — industry signals, news, and patterns from the wider web.

The landscape of gin bars in South Africa is experiencing a remarkable transformation, with a significant increase in consumer interest and search activity. The estimated yearly searches for "gin bar" are projected to rise sharply, reflecting a growing trend that is expected to continue through 2028. With a year-on-year increase of 48%, the gin bar culture is becoming more ingrained in the social fabric of South African cities, particularly in urban centers like Johannesburg and Cape Town.

As the craft gin movement gains momentum, various establishments are capitalizing on the trend by offering unique experiences and a diverse selection of local gins. This surge in popularity is supported by the growing number of craft distilleries and gin-focused bars, which cater to an increasingly discerning clientele eager to explore innovative flavors and botanicals. The trend indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards artisanal and locally produced spirits.

In South Africa, the gin bar scene is not just about drinks but also about creating vibrant social experiences that resonate with both locals and tourists. Events, festivals, and dedicated gin experiences are becoming commonplace, further embedding gin culture within the country's hospitality landscape. As we approach 2028, the continued rise in gin bar searches suggests that this trend is not merely a fad but a significant shift in the beverage industry.

Findings & patterns

Recent data indicates that the estimated annual searches for "gin bar" in South Africa are set to increase dramatically over the next few years. Starting from approximately 51724 searches in 2022, the numbers are projected to rise to around 138954 by 2028, assuming the current growth trend continues. This surge can be attributed to the burgeoning craft gin industry, which has seen a proliferation of local distilleries and bars dedicated to gin. According to sources like South African Tourism, the country's craft beverage sector has become a major draw for both local and international tourists, highlighting the unique flavors and experiences offered by these establishments.

As the gin craze continues, various regions in South Africa are emerging as hotspots for gin enthusiasts. Johannesburg, for instance, boasts a vibrant selection of gin bars, each offering distinct atmospheres and curated gin experiences. The rise of craft cocktails, as noted by In Your Pocket, signifies a broader trend where consumers are increasingly seeking high-quality, artisanal drinks rather than mass-produced options. This shift reflects a growing appreciation for craft spirits and the stories behind them.

Moreover, the inclusion of indigenous botanicals in gin production is a trend that enhances the uniqueness of South African gins. Farmers Magazine highlights that local distilleries are increasingly utilizing native plants to create distinctive flavors, further enriching the gin landscape. This trend not only supports the craft gin movement but also promotes local agriculture and sustainability.

Despite the positive trajectory, the gin market is competitive, with over 50 registered distilleries in South Africa, as reported by SouthAfrica.net. The competition is particularly fierce in the Western Cape, which houses a significant number of these distilleries. The growth of gin bars is thus a double-edged sword; while it reflects consumer enthusiasm, it also necessitates that establishments continuously innovate to attract patrons amidst a crowded market.

In summary, the gin bar trend in South Africa is poised for substantial growth, driven by consumer demand for unique, high-quality experiences. The projected increase in searches underscores a cultural shift towards appreciating craft beverages, with gin bars becoming central to the social experience in urban areas.

Key indicators

Yearly Searches for Gin BarsEstimated yearly searches for 'gin bar' are projected to rise from 51724 in 2022 to approximately 138954 by 2028, indicating a strong upward trend.
Craft Gin Industry GrowthThe craft gin industry in South Africa is expanding rapidly, with more than 50 registered distilleries contributing to a competitive market.
Consumer Preference ShiftConsumers are increasingly favoring artisanal and locally produced spirits over mass-produced options, reflecting a cultural shift in beverage consumption.
Rise of Gin BarsThe number of dedicated gin bars and experiences is increasing, with establishments offering unique atmospheres and curated selections of local gins.
Indigenous Botanicals UsageLocal distilleries are incorporating indigenous botanicals into their gin production, enhancing flavor profiles and supporting local agriculture.
Tourism ImpactThe craft beverage sector, including gin bars, is becoming a significant draw for tourism in South Africa, contributing to local economies.

PartyTrends read

The gin bar trend in South Africa represents a significant cultural shift towards craft beverages, with consumers increasingly seeking unique and high-quality experiences. The projected growth in searches for gin bars indicates that this trend is likely to continue, creating opportunities for both established and new players in the market. As the industry evolves, the focus on local ingredients and innovative flavors will play a crucial role in attracting a discerning clientele.

With the rise of craft gin bars, South Africa's social landscape is also transforming. These establishments are not just places to drink; they serve as social hubs where patrons can explore new flavors, attend events, and engage with the local gin community. This vibrant scene is bolstered by the growing number of festivals and appreciation clubs dedicated to gin, which further enhances consumer engagement.

As we look towards 2028, the gin bar culture in South Africa is set to flourish, driven by consumer enthusiasm for artisanal products and unique drinking experiences. The industry will need to adapt and innovate continually to maintain its momentum in a competitive landscape, ensuring that the growth of gin bars remains sustainable and appealing to a broad audience.

References

Exploring Craft Beer and Gin Distilleries in South Africa: A Local Guide (southafricantourism.co.za)Highlights the growth of the craft beverage industry in South Africa, including gin bars and distilleries that attract tourists.
DRINKStuff SA | Unwrapping SA's craft gin craze (drinkstuff-sa.co.za)Discusses the emergence of festivals and dedicated bars catering to the growing demand for craft gin in South Africa.
A Local's Guide To Johannesburg Gin Bars (blog.findmy.co.za)Showcases popular gin bars in Johannesburg, emphasizing local favorites and unique cocktail experiences.
HOW IT BEGAN | The Gin Bar (theginbar.co.za)Details the history and growth of The Gin Bar, highlighting its extensive menu of over 100 gins, predominantly sourced from South Africa, which reflects the rising trend in gin culture.
The Ultimate Guide to South African Craft Beer and Gin Tourism (travelandtourworld.com)Explores the rise of craft beer and gin tourism, focusing on boutique distilleries and their influence on the market.
Gin market in South Africa (sagaciresearch.com)Analyzes key consumption trends in the gin market, including shopper behavior and evolving consumer choices.
The Best Places to Sip Gin in Johannesburg (timeout.com)Lists the best gin bars in Johannesburg, featuring local distilleries and vibrant atmospheres for gin enthusiasts.
Joburg's Craft Cocktail Revolution (inyourpocket.com)Discusses the craft cocktail scene in Johannesburg, emphasizing the rise of craft spirits, including gin.
The Rise of Craft Gins Using Indigenous Botanicals in South Africa (farmersmag.co.za)Covers the growth of craft gin using indigenous botanicals, emphasizing unique flavors and opportunities within the market.
Jumping on the Gin Train: South Africa's Gin Craze (thirst.co.za)Explores the rise of gin culture in South Africa, including the popularity of gin bars and unique tasting experiences.
Celebrate World Gin Day in Johannesburg (joburg.co.za)Describes a gin bar in Johannesburg that offers a diverse selection of gins and customizable drinks for patrons.
The Gin Bar - Cape Town (theworlds50best.com)Highlights the extensive selection of South African gins at The Gin Bar in Cape Town, showcasing its unique offerings.
The Best Cocktail Bars In Johannesburg (theculturetrip.com)Highlights the growth of the artisanal cocktail movement in Johannesburg, where craft gin bars are becoming increasingly popular.
The Gin Bar - Cape Town: Hidden Gem with 140+ Gins (novacircle.com)Details The Gin Bar in Cape Town as a hidden oasis for gin lovers, featuring over 140 gins and unique cocktails.
The Gin Bar: A Hidden Gem in Cape Town (evendo.com)Describes The Gin Bar in Cape Town as a hidden gem with a remarkable selection of artisanal gins and crafted cocktails.

Research compiled 2026-06-25 22:49:40 UTC UTC

: where it's heading by 2028 South Africa 138954

What PartyTrends reads in this data

What this means for the SA market

What the SA consumer is telling us

What retailers should do

Who wins on Gin Bar: where it's heading by 2028?

Supporting information & indicators

Findings & patterns

Key indicators

PartyTrends read

References

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