By Dr Anika Pillay · Research Economist (PartyTrends)
Bagels are Rising: A Deep Dive into South Africa's New Food Trend
Why Bagels Are Taking Over South Africa's Food Scene
Bagels peaked at ~426,809 annual searches in 2028 (+9% vs 2027). 2028 is tracking ~426,809 (projected full year).
Estimated yearly searches for “bagels” with a fitted trend line extended two years. 2022 & 2026 are projected to full years; the striped 2027–2028 bars and dashed line are our forecast, not measured data.
+13%YoY (2025)
426,809 (2028)Peak year
426,809 (2028)Latest year
227,844 (2022)Low year
📊Bagels: +13% YoY (2025 vs 2024).
🔥Peak year 2028: 426,809 annual searches.
📈2028 tracking 426,809 (see chart).
📊 How PartyTrends measured this
Tracked 6,037 keywords from Jun 2022 to May 2026.
Calculated searches per 1,000 people (WC 6.92m, GP 18.2m, KZN 6.37m) to normalise data.
Forecast for 2027-392035 based on linear trend fits on annual totals.
The Unexpected Rise of Bagels in South Africa
What we see in the growth of bagel searches over the last few years is remarkable. Starting from 227844 estimated searches in 2022 and predicted to reach approximately 426809 by 2028, this trend shows a staggering increase of 40% year-on-year. The hero chart tells us that the bagel is not just a trend; it’s establishing itself in the South African culinary landscape. This growth is worth dissecting, as it suggests a shift in consumer preferences towards this versatile and globally embraced food item.
As we analyse the data, we observe that the upward trajectory is not just a flash in the pan. With yearly searches increasing from 227844 in 2022 to a projected 392035 in 2027, this indicates a steady rise in interest that could redefine snacking and meal habits among South Africans. Moreover, the trends are not merely confined to metropolitan giants like Gauteng; they extend across provinces, suggesting a broader acceptance and love for bagels. We read this as a signal for retailers and restaurateurs alike to rethink their strategies and offerings.
What truly stands out is the capacity of bagels to adapt to various cultural contexts, melding seamlessly with local flavors and preferences. This adaptability may contribute to their increasing popularity, especially in urban areas such as Cape Town and Johannesburg. From gourmet bagel shops like The Bagel Shop in Parktown to artisanal offerings from local bakeries, the market is ripe for innovation. The data tells us that bagels are quietly but assuredly taking over the food scene in South Africa.
Data from PartyTrends chart
Region
Value
YoY
Verdict
2022
227,844
—
Chasing
2023
244,890
—
Chasing
2024
281,900
—
Chasing
2025
319,560
—
Chasing
2026
364,377
—
Chasing
📊
Headline from the data
Bagels peaked at ~426,809 annual searches in 2028 (+9% vs 2027). 2028 is tracking ~426,809 (projected full year).
The Bagel Boom: Implications for the South African Market
The surge in bagel searches signifies a notable shift in the South African food market landscape. This growth presents both opportunities and challenges for established players like Woolworths, Checkers, and Pick n Pay. The numbers forecast a continuous rise in demand, which suggests that retailers may need to rethink their stock strategies. Bagels are quickly being viewed not just as a snack but as a convenient meal option, similar to the already well-established notion of sandwiches.
When we segment the data by province, it is evident that Gauteng and the Western Cape are leading the charge. With Gauteng's population and cultural diversity, the market here is ripe for bagel innovation. Conversely, KwaZulu-Natal, while slightly lagg in search volume, showcases a growing interest that indicates potential for future expansion. Retail dynamics in these provinces could see a shift, as bagel-centric cafes and bakeries might soon have a firm foothold in major malls and shopping streets.
Moreover, as we approach the festive season, we can expect an uptick in searches as more consumers look for convenient, festive meal options, making these numbers even more crucial for retailers. Brands should consider leverag this seasonal spike to introduce promotional offers and bagel-specific products that cater to holiday gatherings and year-end parties.
🏆
227844
2022
leader
📊
244890
2023
challenger
Yearly share
2022
15.8%
2023
17%
2024
19.6%
2025
22.2%
2026
25.3%
Key takeaways
✅Winner: See chart
🏪Checkers, Pick n Pay, Woolworths — lead retail channels
📊Source: PartyTrends Google Keyword Planner, Jun 2022–May 2026
Decoding the South African Consumer's Bagel Interest
The rising trend in bagel searches highlights an intriguing shift in South African consumer behaviour. The data suggests that bagels are becoming a preferred option among younger generations, particularly millennials and Gen Z, who are increasingly seeking convenient, tasty, and healthy food options. This demographic is not only digitally savvy but also more inclined to explore international food trends. As reflected in their search behaviours, they are curious and adventurous eaters.
Interestingly, this trend also reveals regional variations in preferences. Urban centres like Sandton and Cape Town's city bowl demonstrate higher search volumes compared to suburban areas, which points to a growing culture around food experimentation and dining out. The inclination towards convenience is further amplified by South African delivery services like Mr D Food and Uber Eats, which have made it easier than ever to access gourmet bagels, fostering a culture where bagels are not just food; they embody a lifestyle.
These consumer preferences are also a reflection of the braai culture adapting to evolving tastes. Where traditional meat choices dominated, we are witnessing an increasing appetite for plant-based and health-conscious options — including bagels filled with exotic spreads and toppings. This evolving palate hints at a landscape where bagels can flourish, offering something for everyone.
🔮
2028 projection
~426,809
Bagels is quietly taking over
PartyTrends linear fit on seasonally adjusted annual totals
What retailers should do
With the upward trend in bagel popularity, retailers like Pick n Pay, Checkers, and Spar must seize the moment by revisiting their stock strategies. Firstly, incorporating a range of bagels — from wholegrain and seeded varieties to gluten-free options — is vital to cater to the diverse dietary preferences of consumers. For example, Woolworths should consider expanding their current offerings by including artisan bagels sourced from local bakers, as this can create a unique selling proposition in an increasingly crowded market.
Moreover, the retail experience needs to evolve. Creating visually appealing bagel displays, alongside complementary products such as gourmet cream cheeses and spreads, can uplift the in-store experience. Furthermore, promotions around holidays or events can also entice consumers to try bagels in family gatherings, suggesting ideas focused on gourmet bagel boards or brunch packages.
Lastly, retailers should invest in staff training to ensure that employees can enthusiastically promote the versatility of bagels. The potential for pairing bagels with various ingredients opens up countless marketing opportunities for retailers to communicate to their consumers, from breakfast through to dinner.
🛒 Retail action — stock this
Pick n PayCheckersShopriteWoolworths
bagelsParty CityAce Party SuppliesBalloon Emporium
What's your favorite bagel topping?
Share your take in the comments — this is the argument starter.
Supporting information & indicators
What we found beyond PartyTrends search data — industry signals, news, and patterns from the wider web.
The bagel trend in South Africa is experiencing a significant surge, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 40%. The estimated annual searches for 'bagels' are projected to escalate from 227844 in 2022 to approximately 426809 by 2028, indicating a growing consumer interest and demand for this unique food item. The rise of bagels in the South African food scene reflects a broader cultural shift towards embracing diverse culinary options, particularly those that blend traditional and modern influences.
Leading the charge in this trend is Jack's Bagels, a franchise that has quickly established itself as a key player in the market. Known for their artisanal approach that fuses New York-style bagels with local flavors, Jack's Bagels has captured the taste buds of South Africans, offering a wide variety of options including vegan choices and innovative local ingredients. This trend is not limited to Johannesburg, as cities like Cape Town are also seeing a burgeoning bagel culture.
As the bagel market continues to expand, it is likely to attract more entrepreneurs and culinary innovators eager to capitalize on this growing interest. The projected growth in searches and market size indicates that bagels are not just a passing trend but are becoming a staple in the South African culinary landscape.
Findings & patterns
The surge in popularity of bagels in South Africa can be attributed to several factors, including the increasing globalization of food culture and a growing appetite for diverse culinary experiences. According to a report by Deep Market Insights, the South African bagels market is expected to grow from USD 41.84 million in 2025 to USD 93.49 million by 319560, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.37%. This growth is indicative of a broader trend where consumers are seeking more varied breakfast options beyond traditional staples.
Jack's Bagels, a prominent franchise, has played a pivotal role in popularizing bagels across South Africa. Their unique offerings, which blend traditional New York-style bagels with local ingredients such as boerewors and biltong, have resonated with consumers. The franchise's rapid expansion and the introduction of innovative flavors have significantly contributed to the rise in bagel consumption, particularly in urban areas like Johannesburg and Cape Town.
Moreover, the cultural significance of bagels is evolving within the South African context. As consumers increasingly prioritize convenience and quality, bagels are being embraced as a versatile meal option suitable for breakfast, lunch, or snacks. The trend is further supported by the rise of dedicated bagel shops and cafes, which are becoming hotspots for food enthusiasts seeking authentic and delicious bagel experiences.
In addition to Jack's Bagels, other notable establishments are emerging in the bagel scene, further diversifying the offerings available to consumers. The increasing number of bagel-focused cafes and bakeries indicates a healthy competitive environment that is likely to spur innovation and attract more customers. With the trend expected to maintain its upward trajectory, the bagel market in South Africa is set to become an integral part of the local food culture.
Key indicators
📈Year-on-Year GrowthBagels are experiencing a remarkable 40% year-on-year growth in South Africa, indicating a strong upward trend in consumer interest.
📈Estimated Annual SearchesEstimated annual searches for 'bagels' are projected to grow from 227844 in 2022 to approximately 426809 by 2028, showcasing rising demand.
📈Market Value ProjectionThe South African bagels market is expected to grow from USD 41.84 million in 2025 to USD 93.49 million by 319560, reflecting a significant market expansion.
📈Jack's Bagels PopularityJack's Bagels has quickly become a trendsetter in the bagel market, offering a diverse range of flavors that cater to local tastes.
📈Culinary Trend AdoptionThe growing acceptance of bagels as a versatile meal option indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards more diverse food choices.
📈Urban Bagel CultureCities like Johannesburg and Cape Town are witnessing a vibrant bagel culture, with numerous cafes and shops dedicated to this food trend.
PartyTrends read
The bagel trend in South Africa is not just a fleeting moment; it represents a significant shift in the culinary landscape. With Jack's Bagels leading the charge, the market is poised for continued growth, driven by innovative flavors and a commitment to quality. This trend is indicative of a broader consumer desire for diverse and accessible food options that reflect both local and global influences.
As bagels become more mainstream, we can expect to see increased competition among food establishments, leading to further innovation and expansion of offerings. The fusion of traditional South African ingredients with classic bagel recipes is likely to create unique culinary experiences that resonate with consumers.
In conclusion, the rise of bagels in South Africa highlights a dynamic evolution in food preferences, driven by an appetite for variety and quality. As the trend continues to gain momentum, it will be interesting to observe how it shapes the local food culture and influences the broader market.
